Updated prediction of U.S. Presidential Election 2012


This post is an update to my previous post about the presidential election.  The majority of astrologers are predicting a win for Obama, though a handful of very reputable astrologers feel it will go to Romney.   My own view based on a horary I did when it became clear that Romney would get the Republican nomination back in April is that the election will be very close but that Obama will win by a small margin. I’ve been reading various posts by different astrologers who have been using a variety of methods for prediction including mundane astrology, horary, eclipses, Hellenistic ideas about eminence and releasing, directions, progressions, returns, and so on.  There is disagreement about the birth times of the candidates, so various charts are being used.  It is no wonder that different astrologers are reaching different conclusions.

It occurred to me to try a technique of comparing the candidates charts (natal, progressed, return, etc.) to the mundane charts of the swing states (see Penfield, Horoscopes of the Western Hemisphere) as a further way of making a prediction.  In addition, John Halloran’s AstrolDeluxe program has an extremely useful feature that allows you to compare charts and get a numerical score about their compatibility.  It is tedious and detailed work that requires a fair amount of astrological judgment (the “art of astrology”) when the comparisons are very close.  No doubt other astrologers might interpret the same chart comparisons differently based on their own methods and experience.  I have omitted the details because they would make this post go on forever.  Here is I just present the results of my best guesses based on these chart comparisons.

There are sites where you can enter you own ideas about who will win which swing state to make your own prediction about the election. The next president will be chosen by the results of only ten states in the electoral college; the other states’ votes are taken as a given so I did not look at their charts in my analysis (it would have taken too long).  Here is my prediction of how the election will go unless there is some surprise in the so-called non-swing states:

  • Colorado (9 votes): Romney
  • Florida (29 votes): Romney
  • Nevada (6 votes): Obama
  • Iowa (6 votes): Obama
  • New Hampshire (4 votes): Obama
  • North Carolina (15 votes): Romney
  • Ohio (18 votes): Obama
  • Virginia (13 votes): Romney
  • Wisconsin (10 votes): Obama
  • TOTAL SWING STATE VOTES:  44 Obama,  66 Romney
  • TOTAL NON-SWING VOTES:   237 Obama, 191 Romney
  • GRAND TOTAL FOR ELECTION:  281 Obama,  257 Romney

There is a total of 538 electoral votes (281 + 257).  If the election goes as I expect, Obama will get 24 votes more than Romney, or 11 votes more that the 270 electoral votes needed to win, which is a very small margin of only about 2% of the total number of electoral votes.

The LA Times has a site where you can play with the swing state votes and create your own map to predict the election results.  At least 270 electoral votes are needed to win.  Here is my best guess for the electoral map in November of 2012, suggesting a win for Obama:

Likely outcome of 2012 election

Astrologers are often vague and couch their predictions in terms that only the Oracle of Delphi could decipher.  I decided to go out on a limb and make a very specific prediction.  Of course I may be wrong, but at least I’ve put my money where my mouth is, speaking metaphorically.

If I’m wrong, it will provide ample opportunity for me to go back and find the source of my error, enabling me to learn more about astrological symbolism in the process.  (There are many potential source of error: the birth times of the candidates, the mundane charts used, my interpretations of the comparison charts, etc.)

Addendum:  This is in response to Eric’s comment on this post.  Here is an example of the type of analysis I did on dozens of charts.  Let’s take Ohio because it is very important for Romney to win Ohio to win the national election.  Using the data from Penfield’s Horoscopes of the Western Hemisphere, I calculate the mundane chart for Ohio and also looked at its solar return and secondary progression to election day.  I did the same for Obama and Romney.  Using Halloran’s AstrolDeluxe software, I compared all these charts and derived Halloran’s compatibility index, which is a ratio of numerical values he gives to the sum of all the harmonious aspects divided by the total of all inharmonious aspects in the synastry between the two charts.  It gives a measure of how well the two entities represented by the two charts get along.  The higher the score, the more harmonious the relationship.

For example, just looking at Obama’s chart, Romney’s chart and the Ohio chart, all secondarily progressed to election day, we get the following results:

Progressed Ohio to progressed Obama:

  • compatibility index = 2.32 (this means that in the synastry between progressed Obama and progressed Ohio the harmonious aspects are 2.32 times more prominent than the inharmonious aspects)

Three Strongest Aspects between Prg to 11/6/2012 OHIO and Prg to 11/6/2012 Obama:

  • Mer CJN Mer
  • Jup TRI Ven
  • Ura SXT Mer

Progressed Ohio to progressed Romney:

compatibility index = 1.40  (This is 60% of Obama’s score, so Obama has a better chance of winning Ohio.  Romney is still viewed favorably in Ohio but Obama’s aspects are more harmonious than Romney’s)

Three Strongest Aspects between Prg to 11/6/2012 OHIO and Prg to 11/6/2012 Romney:

  • Moo SXT Moo
  • Sun TRI Sat
  • Moo OPP Ura

I concluded that regarding the progressed charts for election day, Obama is more compatible with Ohio than Romney.  In addition, Ohio’s progressed Jupiter trine Obama’s progressed Venus seems particularly favorable for Obama as far as winning the election in Ohio goes.  The progressed Ohio Moon opposing Romney’s progressed Uranus does not sway the Ohio populace in his favor.

In his comment Eric also asked how I would rank order that swing states.  Here was my response:

Fairly certain that Nevada, Wisconsin, New Hampshire will vote Democratic (20 electoral votes total).  Ohio (18 votes) and Iowa (6 votes) are likely to go Democratic but I’m less certain, especially about Iowa.  Hence I’m pretty certain Obama can count on at least 257 votes so he will need to accumulate 13 of my “less certain” votes to win. If he gets Ohio, he wins.  If he loses Ohio, he’ll have to get the additional 7 votes from either Colorado or Virginia.

Fairly certain that North Carolina and Florida will vote Republican (44 electoral votes total).  Colorado (9 votes) and Virginia (13 votes) are likely to go Republican, but I’m less certain.  I’m least sure about Colorado.

[29 Oct 2012 addendum and clarification: I was least sure about Colorado because, using Halloran’s rating scale to compare the progressed charts of the two candidates against the progressed chart of Colorado, Obama has a favorable index of 2.83 versus Romney at 1.13 (which favors Obama) but Romney has an almost exact progressed Moon trine Colorado’s progressed Venus (only 7 minutes of orb from exact).   An exact trine from progressed Venus to the progressed Moon is extremely favorable for popular appeal and I gave it a little more weight than the compatibility index factor.  Based on this astrological technique, Colorado could go either way.  Because my horary showed the election being very close, I gave Colorado with its 9 votes to Romney.  If Obama wins Colorado, he would have 290 electoral votes and Romney only 248, which is a wider margin of victory than I expect based on my horary for the election.  Weighing everything I considered astrologically, I felt that a margin of 281 Obama to 257 Romney was the more likely scenario, but an Obama win of 290 electoral votes vs 248 for Romney is also astrologically consistent with the technique.]

[29 Oct 2012 addendum continued: Florida was more difficult to judge.  Obama has a decided edge over Romney if we only look at Halloran’s compatibility index.  However, Romney’s has a progressed Venus/Mars conjunction in his progressed 10th house (Aries cusp), and this conjunction closely trines Mars (ruler of Romney’s progressed 10th) in Florida’s “natal” 7th house which represents the electorate.  In addition, Romney progressed Moon/MC conjunction is closely sextile Florida’s “natal” Saturn in 13 Aquarius, very close to Romney’s natal Part of Fortune in the 10th.  Saturn is also the traditional ruler of Romney’s career 10th.  For these reasons I gave Florida to Romney despite Obama’s lead in Halloran’s compatibility index.  As you can see, an enormous amount of astrological judgment was involved, which also introduces a fair margin of error.  I took the compatibility index as a starting point and then looked at the individual chart factors, laying special emphasis on those dealing with career, popular vote, and public office.  Time will tell whether my judgement was sound.]

Addendum 27 OCT 2012:  An article today suggests that the race is extremely close (as predicted by most astrologers, including myself) and that Romney has a real shot a winning.  I still think Obama will just squeak by.  November 6th and the following weeks will give us the answer.

Post election addendum:  So how did I do?  Here are the results of the election from http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/results:

Popular Vote
OBAMA ROMNEY
TOTAL 62,611,250 59,134,475
PERCENT 50.6% 47.8%
I was wrong about Colorado, Florida and Virginia, which I thought would go to Romney.  These were hard states to call and I will need to go back over my reasoning to try to tweak the method.  Halloran’s compatibility index clearly called Florida for Obama but I thought there were individual chart factors that more strongly favored Romney.  It looks like the cases where I was wrong were one that Halloran’s compatibility index was correct but my overall assessment of the charts was in error.  Halloran’s index appears to be a fairly strong predictor.
Overall, I was correct that Obama would win the election but  I thought the margin would be closer that it was.  On the other hand, one could argue that Obama’s winning 50.6% of the popular vote is “squeaking by” on the popular vote level.
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About Anthony Louis

Author of books about astrology and tarot, including TAROT PLAIN AND SIMPLE, HORARY ASTROLOGY, and THE ART OF FORECASTING WITH SOLAR RETURNS.
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13 Responses to Updated prediction of U.S. Presidential Election 2012

  1. Eric says:

    Nice work! I’d been hoping to see somebody go swing-state by swing-state. Were the results for some of the states more decisive than others?

    • Eric,
      Yes, some chart comparisons were more compelling than others. As I was doing the work on dozens of charts, I didn’t take notes with your question in mind so it would be a big job to go back an reconstruct all the comparisons. I have added to the original post to illustrate some of the things I looked at.
      Tony

    • Eric,

      Your question got me thinking so I went back over my notes. In response to your question, here is my level of certainty:

      Fairly certain that Nevada, Wisconsin, New Hampshire will vote Democratic (20 electoral votes total). Ohio (18 votes) and Iowa (6 votes) are likely to go Democratic but I’m less certain, especially about Iowa. Hence I’m pretty certain Obama can count on at least 257 votes so he will need to accumulate 13 of my “less certain” votes to win. If he gets Ohio, he wins. If he loses Ohio, he’ll have to get the additional 7 votes from either Colorado or Virginia.

      Fairly certain that North Carolina and Florida will vote Republican (44 electoral votes total). Colorado (9 votes) and Virginia (13 votes) are likely to go Republican, but I’m less certain. I’m least sure about Colorado.

      Hope that answers your question.

      Tony

  2. Pingback: Who will win the 2012 presidential election? | Anthony Louis – Astrology & Tarot Blog

  3. Pingback: Updated prediction of U.S. Presidential Election 2012 | Anthony ... | Astrology-in-business | Scoop.it

  4. Pam says:

    Per your first prediction, in which you mentioned inauguragion day looks really good for someone with a watery chart, there are two other participants who have such charts: Joe Biden and Michelle Obama.

  5. The Halloween mask index is consistent with the prediction of most astrologers and perhaps just as reliable. According to
    http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/23/news/economy/halloween-masks-presidential-election/index.html :

    “NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Polls may show a hotly contested presidential election. But sales of Halloween masks of the candidates are already calling the race. President Obama masks have been outselling those of his Republican challenger Mitt Romney by a 60% to 40% margin, according to Spirit Halloween, the country’s largest seasonal Halloween retailer.”

    “The 1,000-store chain even has its own “presidential index,” which uses nationwide sales of candidates’ masks to predict the outcome of the most important U.S. election every four years.
    As unscientific as the methodology may be, Spirit Halloween has accurately predicted the election winner by charting national mask sales since it started keeping track in 1996.”

  6. Andi Singh says:

    Based on the Date of Births of Barack Obama,Michelle Obama,Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, I have to state that Obama will lose the US elections.

  7. Eric says:

    Larry Sabato, one of the most accurate political analysts, is calling a close election for Obama. His electoral college projection is identical to yours except for Colorado. Hopefully by the end of tomorrow we’ll know if that’s on the money, but retrograde Mercury may give us some confusion.

    • There are so many possibilities that someone had to agree with my astrological guesswork. Do you have a link for Larry Sabato’s comments on the election? I presented my best guess based on astrological chart comparisons but obviously in the context of what I know about the electional process so far, since I follow the news carefully on this matter. I think Colorado could go either way, but astrologically it seems to me Romney has a very slight edge there. It would not surprise me if Obama took Colorado. I made a very specific “prediction” because I noticed that most astrologers were making rather wishy-washy predictions and at the same time hedging their bets, so that no matter what happens they can say they were right. I will be surprised if Obama loses, but I will not at all be surprised if my electoral vote count is not accurate (though I do expect it to be very close). If Obama does get 281 electoral votes, I will be quite amazed that this experimental technique has possibilities.
      Tony
      PS: I just googled Larry Sabato and found his site: http://www.larrysabato.com/
      As of today he is predicting Obama 290 electoral votes and Romney 248, as you mentioned. I also heard on today’s news that Wisconsin is very close. If I have time, I’ll go over the charts for Wisconsin to see if there is anything I did not consider that might give it to Romney. I felt that astrologically it was leaning toward Obama.

  8. Pingback: Astrologers Predict the 2012 Election: Roundup

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