Several prominent astrologers have stated their astrologically based opinion that Obama will defeat Romney in November. On 29 May 2012 Reuters reported: “The votes are in and it is unanimous: Barack Obama will win re-election to the U.S. presidency in November, according to five astrologers who offered predictions at their convention on Tuesday.” It always makes me nervous when astrologers are unanimous in their opinion. Maybe it’s a nagging feeling that the universe will puncture their balloon by having Romney win the election. [Today, 21 Oct 2012, I posted an update to this post at http://tonylouis.wordpress.com/2012/10/21/updated-prediction-of-u-s-presidential-election-2012/]
To be honest, I haven’t yet had the time to analyze the charts of all the candidates to draw any conclusion of my own. That’s an enormous undertaking, which would require several hours to do well. The closest I have come so far is to ask a horary question back in April of 2012 when it became clear that Romney was the undisputed front runner for the Republican nomination. The horary was not conclusive and left me feeling that it would be a very close election in which Obama might just squeak by. If I had to quantify it, I would give Obama just slightly more than a 50% chance of winning based on this horary.
I thought it might be of interest to post the horary here and throw my 2 cents into the fray. On 13 April 2012 at 9:18 a.m. I decided to use only the traditional planets and Regiomontanus houses and asked, “Who will win in November, Obama or Romney?” Here is the chart:
My method of analysis may be a bit unorthodox, so let me give my reasoning. I assumed that the 10th house would represent Obama who is currently in office. The 10th is ruled by Saturn and has the PF within.
Obama’s opponent would be the opposite house, ruled by the Sun with Mars within. The Sun is applying to an opposition to Saturn, which must symbolically represent the upcoming election when it becomes exact.
Sun in Aries seemed to describe Romeny well. He aspires to be president. He is a wealthy profit-driven business entrepreneur. Saturn in Libra describes Obama well: a serious lawyer who wants to bring balance and a spirit of cooperation to Washington. The chart describes the situation well, and on this basis appears to be “radical.”
Saturn would be Obama’s primary ruler and the Sun would be Romney’s primary ruler. The question becomes: which is stronger, Saturn or the Sun? They look fairly evenly matched. Using Dorothean triplicites and Egyptian term rulers, both the Sun and Saturn are exalted and in their own triplicities. Here is the dignity table from Janus software:
The Sun (Romney) is traveling at its mean speed, is ruled by malefic Mars, and is in the terms of Mars. The Sun’s ruler, Mars, is retrograde, peregrine and slow in motion, as it approaches a station when it will come to a complete stop.
Saturn (Obama) is fast in motion but retrograde, is ruled by benefic Venus, and in the terms of Venus. Saturn’s ruler, Venus, is slow in motion and peregrine but in slightly better shape than Mars. The Part of Fortune occupies the 10th house which represents Obama.
All in all, the two candidates look evenly matched with perhaps a very slight advantage going to Obama, but not enough for me to feel certain of the outcome. If I had to put numbers to it, I would guess Obama 52-53% vs Romney 47-48%.
I next looked at the chart for the moment that the Sun/Saturn opposition in the original horary chart would become exact. It is fascinating that the Sun/Saturn opposition occurs across 26 Aries 10 to 26 Libra 10 in fairly exact aspect to the 26 Aquarius 13 MC of the original horary chart (Saturn trine and Sun sextile the original MC), again suggesting a close race. (The MC of the original horary is accurate to within a few seconds of arc. I used the coordinates of the street address where I asked the question and recorded the time of the question to the nearest minute, so the time of the question is accurate to within 30 seconds. I usually time horaries only to the nearest minute because by the time I think of the question, decide to do a horary and then look at my watch, several seconds may have passed by. In this case I wish I had timed the question very exactly because then I’d know whether the exact Sun/Saturn opposition occurred at the exact same degree and minute of arc of the original MC. As it is, the difference is only 3 seconds of arc, which is essentially exact.) My assumption was that symbolically this chart would represent the election:
Here are the dignities for this “election day” chart:
In this chart the Sun (Romney) has moved into the terms of Saturn (Obama), giving the later a slightly greater advantage. With Taurus now on the MC, Venus rules the MC (the presidency) and continues as Saturn’s ruler (favoring Obama). The Moon, which is exalted in the MC, trines both Saturn and the Sun, suggesting a close election; but the Moon lies in the detriment of the Sun, so its trine to Saturn (Obama) is more favorable than its trine (from the Sun’s detriment) to the Sun (Romney). In addition, Saturn applies to trine the Part of Fortune in the 10th, which is favorable for Obama. The Sun (Romney) is separating from a sextile to the Part of Fortune, which is much less favorable the Obama’s trine.
The result of the “symbolically progressed horary” is the same as that of the original: a close election which Obama is likely to win by a small margin.
Addendum: After I posted this article, Jenny Brown called my attention to a post by Curtis Manwaring in which he uses the detailed methods of Helenistic astrology and the concepts of “eminence” and “releasing” to arrive at a very similar conclusion. He thinks Obama will probably win but does not rule out an upset by Romney. On the Traditional Astrologers page of Facebook, Manwaring added: “ I would say that I’m only at about 55% / 45% certainty on an Obama win.” On the other hand, in the same discussion Chris Brennan noted that Ema Kurent published a prediction that Romney would win based on her study of eclipses and that William Stickevers did a horary which predicted a win for Romney (together with some techniques of mundane astrology).
According to Manwaring: “If the standard rules that winning the seat of president indicate favorable astrological conditions, then I would have to say that Obama has the edge. If a connection to specific dates through the releasing is an indication, then Romney might pull off an upset. As it is I cannot say for certain, but I think Obama will win a 2nd term…”
(Manwaring uses 9:51 AM for Romney’s birth time, which I believe is a time invented by the late Francis McEvoy based on her rectification of a historic record of Mitt’s birth written by Romney’s father who gives the birth time as 10 AM. Manwaring comments that he would rectify the 9:51 AM time to at least 4 minutes later or 9:55 AM, which is closer to when Mitt’s father said that he was born. Manwaring’s arguments are compelling and call into question McEvoy’s rectification of Romeny’s birth time, which many astrologers seem to be using these days. I prefer the time recorded by Mitt’s father and have reproduced the reference below — italics in bold are mine.)
“Mitt Romney: the beginning
The Boston Globe
For Mitt Romney, life began with high drama.
On March 13, 1947, George Romney, a rising star in the auto industry who was often described as a man in a hurry, took time out to write to the relatives and colleagues he’d missed during the previous day’s blizzard of telegrams and phone calls.
“Dear Folks,” Romney wrote on the letterhead of the Automobile Manufacturers Association, where he served as general manager, “Well, by now most of you have had the really big news, but for those who haven’t, Willard Mitt Romney arrived at Ten AM March 12.” The new baby was not the first but rather the fourth born to Romney and his wife, Lenore. Yet as the paragraphs flowed, and Romney detailed how precarious his wife’s pregnancy had been, it became clear there was a special level of wonderment embedded in this announcement, in this birth.
“A couple of years ago, the Doctor told Lenore that her condition would not permit her to have another child and that she would have to undergo a major operation,” Romney wrote. “However, she had a lot of faith.”
After delivery, he wrote, the doctor examined Lenore and announced in amazement, “I don’t see how she became pregnant, or how she carried the child.” Romney summed it up this way: “We consider it a blessing for which we must thank the Creator of all.” From then on, Lenore referred to Mitt as “my miracle baby.”
His sisters were nearly 12 and 9 at the time, his brother almost 6, and they didn’t wait long to begin the debate over whether to call the baby “Bill” or “Mitt.” The Willard was in honor of J. Willard Marriott, a family friend and future hotel magnate, and the Mitt was a nod to Milton “Mitt” Romney, a cousin of George’s and former Chicago Bears quarterback. By the time Mitt settled on his preferred name in kindergarten, the family had moved from Detroit to the affluent suburb of Bloomfield Hills.”
Addendum 19 Aug 2012: It occurred to me to use the free Morinus software which does a nice table of comparative dignities and almutens. For these calculations I used the Egyptian terms, Chaldean decans, and the Morinus triplicities with all three triplicity rulers. I have come to favor the Morinus reformulation of triplicity rulers because it often gives better results in natal chart interpretations. Below is what the Morinus software displayed regarding relative overall strengths of the planets in the original horary. Again Obama (Saturn) has a slight edge over Romney (the Sun).
(Click on the above graphic for a sharper image.)
Another addendum: On the Traditional Astrologers page of Facebook, Eve Dembowski commented on my horary:
“One thing I think it is important to remember is that this is not really an even contest, Obama is already president, he just needs to not lose. Romney on the other hand needs to defeat Obama and win. A slight advantage to Obama, will get him over the line far more easily that a slight advantage to Romney.
As to your horary; my rule of thumb is keep it simple and always take note of the Moon which is the natural significator of the course of events.
Looking at your chart purely from a horary perspective and very simply; the Moon has separated from the Sun (Romney). His next aspect is to Saturn (Obama) by square with reception, after which he will carry his light to the MC ( signifying the high office of the presidency); which Saturn is next going to trine anyway, via retrograde motion, (symbolically a return). The Sun will not aspect the MC until after Saturn (in real time).
The Moon, but also in this chart could signify “the people” and they are clearly concerned/worried with the economy/money. Moon in detriment in the 8th house (anguish of mind) and ruling the 2nd.”